Strip away the noise and melodrama of Arsenal’s back-to-back cup exits and one thing remains emphatically true: they are still the most likely Premier League champions of 2025-26. Nine points clear with a handful of matches remaining, their grip on the title is historically strong, even accounting for the form concerns that have emerged since the Manchester City Carabao Cup final.
The table as it stands places Arsenal with a buffer that would take a catastrophic sequence of results to eliminate. Manchester City, their closest challengers, have been in excellent form — winning the League Cup and threatening in the Champions League — but even City’s most optimistic projections require Arsenal to slip dramatically. That isn’t impossible, but it is statistically unlikely.
What this week has demonstrated, though, is that Arsenal’s squad depth is real but not inexhaustible. The overloading of Mikel Arteta’s rotation policy — pulling 11 players from the international break, then making seven changes for the Southampton FA Cup match — has stretched resources in a way that has cost them on two separate occasions. The Gabriel injury, sustained against Southampton, adds another layer of concern ahead of a critical fortnight.
The Champions League tie against Sporting CP beginning Tuesday is the next major examination. Arsenal haven’t won the Champions League in their history, and reaching a semi-final for the first time since 2009 would be a genuinely transformative achievement regardless of what happens in the league. Managing both competitions simultaneously over the next three weeks requires sharp rotation and full fitness — neither of which is fully guaranteed right now.
What’s analytically interesting is how Arsenal’s form over the last fortnight compares to the eight months prior. Before the City cup final, they had been largely relentless — compact, clinical and rarely wasteful in the big moments. The recent defeats suggest a team that may be experiencing a short-term fatigue dip rather than any fundamental collapse, but the timing, heading into the business end of two competitions, is uncomfortable.
The fixture calendar now works fairly kindly for Arsenal in the league. Bournemouth, Wolves, Sunderland and West Ham are all achievable wins before the City match arrives. Win those and even a draw against City would leave Arsenal within touching distance of their first league title in 22 years — a milestone that Arteta has been building towards since his first day in north London.
The treble is gone. The double remains very much on.
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