How Liverpool can avoid a championship hangover

A story all too familiar in football: a team, coming off a fantastic championship campaign, struggles to maintain the success from the previous season.

In the past decade, the performances of Premier League champions in the following seasons demonstrate that title-winning sides often suffer from hangovers. In this time frame, the only repeat Premier League champion was the 2018/19 Manchester City team.

Interestingly, championship-winning sides tally 16.4 points fewer than the previous season on average and have an average finish of 5^th place. Not only are sides struggling to defend their crowns, but they also struggle just to retain their places in the Champions League!

However, I think most would agree that the recently crowned Liverpool side aren’t like most previous champions. The Reds have shattered long-standing records (with more to come), including clinching the title with an astounding seven games remaining.

Nonetheless, history shows that Jurgen Klopp’s men should still be wary of the threat of a drop-off. Take Manchester City this season, for instance. Despite how brilliant they’ve looked at times, City are on pace to finish the season on 77 points, a steep 21 point drop from last season.

The Premier League schedule is gruelling, and even the best of sides can struggle to bring the same energy and consistency into each of the 38 matches.

The threats to repeating

Lack of depth

Liverpool’s squad screams of world-class talent in every position, from the backline to the spine of the midfield to the attack. There’s not a player in their starting 11 that isn’t in the top tier of players at their position, along with a few gems who sit just outside their best 11 (Matip, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita).

However, the depth behind the starters isn’t the most potent. Although he has scored critical goals in the past, many Liverpool fans would prefer that the club upgrade from Divock Origi. Takumi Minamino is still finding his footing in England, and it may take some time for him to provide meaningful contributions to the side.

In the backline, the club has assumed the risk of having no true full-backs to deputize for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson.

When one of those two aren’t playing (which is rare), Klopp will often deploy Joe Gomez or James Milner out of position. Youngsters Neco Williams and Yasser Larouci have shown promise, but still have a ways to go.

Furthermore, when Alisson went down early in the season, Adrian was handed the gloves. For the most part, he performed quite well. However, he made some key errors—most memorably in the Champions League tie against Atletico Madrid—that have led many to believe that Liverpool need to move on from the former West Ham keeper.

When you look at Man City again, they have often called on players such as Bernardo Silva, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus, and Phil Foden for depth. Liverpool, at the moment, just don’t sport the same luxury of options.

Injuries

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Liverpool’s ascent to dominance is the ability of their top players to stay healthy. The main reason that depth hasn’t been a problem for them so far is that they really haven’t needed to utilize their backup players all that often.

Liverpool’s renowned front three have played in over 90% of the team's Premier League and Champions League games over the past three seasons. Virgil van Dijk has played every minute of this Premier League season. Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Wijnaldum, Henderson, among others, rarely experience long spells on the sidelines.

As cynical as it sounds, it’s almost inevitable to expect that the injury bug will be less kind to the Reds in the future. How would the team adapt if Salah were to suffer a serious injury? Or van Dijk?

We saw how much Manchester City’s backline suffered this season after Aymeric Laporte went down with a knee injury in August. Although the team is very well-balanced, just one injury could set them in the wrong direction. More than one could lead to a more serious decline.

Good fortune

Make no mistake—Liverpool deserve all the praise and recognition that they’ve received this season. No doubt about it. However, for a team to gain three points game after game the way that they have often requires a bit of luck.

Notably, Liverpool’s knack for scoring late winners has really launched the side into the upper echelon. Remarkably, the side has secured an extra 16 points in the last 15 minutes of games. 14 of Liverpool’s 28 victories in the league this season have come by just one goal.

There are various instances of Liverpool’s good fortunes this season. Dean Henderson, who has been nearly untouchable this season, made a horrible mistake to gift Liverpool three points in their 1-0 victory in September.

They scored twice in the dying moments of the game at Villa Park to turn a loss into a win. They also benefitted from multiple Lukas Fabianski mistakes in their 3-2 win over West Ham in February.

Next season, they may not be able to depend on mistakes from other teams. Rather than seeing gaffs from goalkeepers in games that they didn’t deserve to win, they might see goalkeepers shine to prevent them from winning games that they did deserve to win (Kepa’s performance in the FA cup match this season comes to mind).

What Liverpool have on their side

All in all, it’s almost unimaginable that Liverpool will be able to replicate this season’s point tally in the 2020/2021 campaign. However, some things should put Reds fans at ease.

First, this team just isn’t like any other before them. With all due respect to the Chelsea sides guided by Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte, Manuel Pelligrini’s Manchester City’s sides, and the unforgettable Leicester City side, the only championship team in recent memory that even comes close to rivalling this current Liverpool side is the Manchester City side that they’ve duelled the past few seasons.

This side has arguably 6 or 7 of the best 20 players in the world at the moment. Furthermore, most of these players are in their prime, as Van Dijk, Salah, Mane, Firmino, Wijnaldum, and Alisson are all either 28 or 29 years old.

Andy Robertson, Fabinho, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are just 26, while Naby Keita is just 25. The cherry on top is that Trent Alexander-Arnold is somehow only 21.

Additionally, it doesn’t seem that the club has to worry about any of their major pieces leaving this summer. In the past, departures have massively hurt championship-winning sides. Manchester City suffered last season after the departure of club legend Vincent Kompany, Chelsea faltered in 2017/18 after selling Diego Costa to Atletico Madrid, and Manchester United were (and still are) decimated by the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson in 2013.

However, the futures of the club’s biggest assets have been secured with contract extensions in the recent past. The only player whose fate is somewhat uncertain is Wijnaldum, but reports indicate that progress has been made on a contract extension.

Finally, the squad is not only talented, but they have completely bought into the manager’s plans. Jurgen Klopp has gained the trust of every member of the team, allowing them to perform even better than just the sum of their individual talents. There is a sense of togetherness in this team that has catapulted them to the highest tier of English football.

Because of this, Liverpool fans should expect another strong title challenge next season. Liverpool should have a bit of breathing room, as they’re currently on pace to win the league by 28 points. More than anything else, Jurgen Klopp’s spirit should drive the team to achieve new heights—the same way it has for the past five years.