A financial report released has broken down Premier League club’s spending habits to tell us if teams have over or under-paid for players over the last decade.
The report comes from the CIES Football Observatory – who have valued every side from Europe’s top five leagues in the last decade to see how they performed in the transfer market.
Using the Football Observatory’s database, they compared actual player value – estimated by the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model – to the fee paid by the signing clubs in each individual deal.
The clubs were then rated by how much they under or over-spent for players with the results telling us what we already know – Liverpool have been extremely clever in the market and the statistics show that.
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What the report tells us
In Liverpool’s case, they’ve performed incredibly well compared to other big sides in England and in Europe. According to their report, Liverpool have paid £56million over the odds for their transfers over the last decade.
In the last decade, Liverpool have had 33 major signings assessed with a total expenditure of €1.004billion compared to an estimated player value of €948million – equal to an overspend of £56million, which places them ninth in the Premier League and 19th across Europe.
That sees them paying over the odds equal to a percentage figure of only 6% – which is a very good return considering top clubs have to always overspend when securing players.
Thanks to the incredible work of Michael Edwards and, currently, Julian Ward, Liverpool have secured a lot of their top performers of the last decade for relatively low fees compared to their rivals and haven’t had many, if not any at all, major flops thanks to the careful and considered sustainable transfer approach.
Compared to other sides – Manchester City have just a €23M overspend, with the likes of Manchester United (€238M) Chelsea (€135M) and Arsenal (€129M), as well as Merseyside rivals Everton (€97M) all posting higher spends. All of those clubs have been more active in the market than Liverpool have due to the Red’s owners FSG being more frugal with their money.
Furthermore, Liverpool have opted for lesser-known names, rather than the likes of Manchester United who have opted for bigger names that seek to fit the profile of the club rather than the right player like Liverpool have so cleverly identified.
Liverpool's net spend in the transfer market this summer is about the same as Chelsea are paying to get Graham Potter out of Brighton… this highlights the challenge Jurgen Klopp faces working with the current Anfield owners #LFC pic.twitter.com/NFSMFa9YZ6
— Kevin Palmer 💙 (@RealKevinPalmer) September 7, 2022
Best examples of transfer business
For Liverpool, they have a number of great deals that were not considered great signings at the time, but as time has gone on, they have become extremely good deals. For example, Andy Robertson was signed from Hull City for a fee of around £8M – and he’s now worth £59M according to Transfermarkt.
Developing from a mostly unknown young Scottish full-back into one of the world’s best in his position, it’s safe to say Liverpool got this one incredibly right. The signings of their famed front three cost a combined total of £87M for the services of Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino.
Compare that with the Darwin Nunez signing which costs the Reds £85M – this is an example of them paying over the odds, which is rather out of character for the club but they always spend big when they believe the player would be a perfect match for their squad.
The jury is still very much out on Nunez, but their overall business in recent times has been carefully measured and negotiated for the best deal possible – something which Ward will strive to continue to do.
